Profile-based Maximum Penalised Likelihood Trajectory Estimation from Space-borne LOS Measurements

Taihe Yi; Zhen Shen; Zhengming Wang; Bing Liu; Dongyun Yi

doi:10.14429/dsj.66.9226

Taihe Yi College of Science, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha
Zhen Shen College of Science, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha
Zhengming Wang College of Science, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha
Bing Liu College of Science, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha
Dongyun Yi College of Science, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha

DOI: https://doi.org/10.14429/dsj.66.9226

Keywords: Trajectory estimation, poor-observability, pseudo-measurements, Likelihood estimator

Abstract

Estimating the boost-phase trajectory of a ballistic missile using line of sight measurements from space-borne passive sensors is an important issue in missile defense. A well-known difficulty of this issue is the poor-observability of the target motion. A profile-based maximum penalised likelihood estimator is presented, which is expected to work in poor-observability scenarios. Firstly, a more adaptable boost-phase profile is proposed by introducing unknown parameters. Then, the estimator is given based on the Bayesian paradigm. After that, a special penalty for box constraint is constructed based on a mixed distribution. Numerical results for some typical scenarios and sensitivity with respect to a priori information are reported to show that the proposed estimator is promising.

Author Biographies

Taihe Yi, College of Science, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha

Mr Taihe Yi received his BS (Applied Mathematics) from National University of Defense Technology, China, in 2011. Currently pursuing his PhD in Applied Mathematics at the National University of Defense Technology. His area of expertise are : Constrained statistical inference, design of experiment, and target tracking.

Zhen Shen, College of Science, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha

Dr Zhen Shen received his BS (Applied Mathematics) from National University of Defense Technology, China, in 2002, MS and PhD in Systems Analysis and Integration from National University of Defense Technology, in 2005 and 2010, respectively. Currently, working as a Lecturer at the Department of Mathematics and Systems Science, College of Science, National University of Defense Technology. His research interests include: Data analysis and systems engineering.

Zhengming Wang, College of Science, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha

Dr Zhengming Wang received his BS and MS in Applied Mathematics and PhD in System Engineering in 1982, 1986, and 1998, respectively. He has co-published five monographs (all ranked first) and well over 90 papers. Currently, he is a Professor in Applied Mathematics. His research interests include: Experiment evaluation and data fusion, mathematical modelling in tracking data, image processing.

Bing Liu, College of Science, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha

Mr Bing Liu received his BS (Applied Mathematics) from National University of Defense Technology, China in 2009, and MS (System Analysis and Integration) from National University of Defense Technology, 2011. Currently pursuing his PhD in System Analysis and Integration at the National University of Defense Technology and currently works on target tracking and system engineering.

Dongyun Yi, College of Science, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha

Mr Dongyun Yi received his BS and MS in Applied Mathematics and PhD in System Engineering in 1985, 1992, and 2003, respectively. He has co-published two monographs and published more than sixty papers. Currently, working as a Professor in systems analysis and integration. His research interests include : Data fusion, parameter estimation of satellite positioning, mathematical modelling, and analysis of financial data.