Risk Quantification and Evaluation Modelling

  • Manmohan Singh Vehicle Research and Development Establishment, Ahmednagar
  • M.D. Jaybhaye College of Engineering, Pune
  • S.K. Basu College of Engineering, Pune
Keywords: Risk coefficient, likeliness coefficient, CBRRCM, condition, monitoring


In this paper authors have discussed risk quantification methods and evaluation of risks and decision parameter to be used for deciding on ranking of the critical items, for prioritization of condition monitoring based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). As time passes any equipment or any product degrades into lower effectiveness and the rate of failure or malfunctioning increases, thereby lowering the reliability. Thus with the passage of time or a number of active tests or periods of work, the reliability of the product or the system, may fall down to a low value known as a threshold value, below which the reliability should not be allowed to dip. Hence, it is necessary to fix up the normal basis for determining the appropriate points in the product life cycle where predictive preventive maintenance may be applied in the programme so that the reliability (the probability of successful functioning) can be enhanced, preferably to its original value, by reducing the failure rate and increasing the mean time between failure. It is very important for defence application where reliability is a prime work. An attempt is made to develop mathematical model for risk assessment and ranking them. Based on likeliness coefficient β1 and risk coefficient β2 ranking of the sub-systems can be modelled and used for CBRRCM.

Defence Science Journal, Vol. 64, No. 4, July 2014, pp. 378-384, DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.14429/dsj.64.6366


Author Biographies

Manmohan Singh, Vehicle Research and Development Establishment, Ahmednagar
Dr Manmohan Singh, PhD Mech. Reliability Engg., MMS (Distn.), working as a Director, Vehicles Research & Development Establishment, Ahmednagar. He has 15 publications in National/International Conferences and Journals. He is a Fellow of Institution of Engineers (India), Life member of SAQR, Hyderabad, Member SAE (India) and Fluid Power Society of India.
M.D. Jaybhaye, College of Engineering, Pune
Dr Maheshwar D. Jaybhaye, PhD (Mech.Prod. Engg.) working as Associate Professor, Production Engineering Department at College of Engineering, Pune. He has 18 publications in National/International conferences and Journals. He is life member of ISTE, life Member Tribology Society India, life Member Operation Research Society of India & Associate Member of Institution of Engineers (India). He is recipient of K.F. Antia memorial Award (Gold Medal) from Institution of Engineers (India).
S.K. Basu, College of Engineering, Pune
Dr Sushil Kumar Basu PhD; DSc (Engg.), F.I.Mech.E.(Lond), F.I.E.(India), FNAE, working as Professor Emeritus, College of Engineering, Pune. He has more than 150 publications in his credit in National/International conferences and Journals. He was former Director of Central Mechanical Engineering Research Institute, Durgapur (1976-86). He has authored 7 books and recipient of four awards from Institution of Engineers and four Invention Promotion Board Award by National Research Development Corporation of India.
How to Cite
Singh, M., Jaybhaye, M., & Basu, S. (2014). Risk Quantification and Evaluation Modelling. Defence Science Journal, 64(4), 378-384. https://doi.org/10.14429/dsj.64.6366
Engineering Science & Technology