The Application of Bass Diffusion Model in Forecasting Telecommunication Services Users in Military Assistance to Civilian Authorities

Boban Z. Pavlovic; Samed M. Karovic

doi:10.14429/dsj.65.6026

Boban Z. Pavlovic Military Academy, University of Defence, Belgrade
Samed M. Karovic Dr Samed M. Karovic obtained his MSc and PhD (Military Management) from Military Academy, University of Defence in Belgrade, in 2003 and 2007, respectively. Currently, he is an Associate Professor in the Department of Management at Military Academy, University of Defence in Belgrade, Serbia. He has published more than 40 research papers in National, International Conferences and National and International Journals. His research activity and interest are focused on Military management, risk management, and methodology of scientific research.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.14429/dsj.65.6026

Keywords: Natural disasters, relief operation to civil authorities, Bass’s diffusion model, forecasting

Abstract

This paper analyses the application of Bass’s diffusion model in forecasting the number of telecommunication services users in the event of natural disasters. Citizens’ behaviour has been modelled in the case of an emergency situation caused by an earthquake with high magnitude. We analysed the area of an administrative district in the south-west part of the Republic of Serbia which includes two cities and three municipalities. To control the consequences of natural disasters, a unit of the Army of Serbia with the required number of radio transceivers for establishing communication between the vulnerable population and rescuers with command staff at the observed territory has been dimensioned. Special emphasis is given to the provision of telecommunication support in the military assistance in a relief operation with civil authorities.

Defence Science Journal, Vol. 65, No. 2, March 2015, pp.144-149, DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.14429/dsj.65.6026

Author Biographies

Boban Z. Pavlovic, Military Academy, University of Defence, Belgrade

Dr Boban Z. Pavlovic received his MSc (Telecommunications Engineering) from School of Electrical Engineering, University of Belgrade in 2006 and PhD (Telecommunications Engineering) from Military Academy, University of Defence, Belgrade in 2010. Currently, he is working as an Assistant Professor in the Department for Telecommunication and Informatics at Military Academy, University of Defence in Belgrade, Serbia. He has published more than 30 research papers. His research interest includes: Telecommunication networks, networks survivability, wireless communications, and traffic engineering.

Samed M. Karovic, Dr Samed M. Karovic obtained his MSc and PhD (Military Management) from Military Academy, University of Defence in Belgrade, in 2003 and 2007, respectively. Currently, he is an Associate Professor in the Department of Management at Military Academy, University of Defence in Belgrade, Serbia. He has published more than 40 research papers in National, International Conferences and National and International Journals. His research activity and interest are focused on Military management, risk management, and methodology of scientific research.

Department of Management