Statistical-Based Forecasting of Avalanche Prediction
AbstractThis paper describes the study carried out to predict few meteorological parameters of the nextday using the observed parameters of previous day through statistical methods. Multiple linear regression model was formulated for a hill station, Patsio, situated between Manali and Leh, for two winter months(December and January) separately. Twelve meteorological parameters were predicted using 18 predictorsob served on the previous day. Ten years data has been used for the computation of regression coefficients. A comparison of the forecasted parameters with the observations was made through the regressionmodel. The prediction of the developed regression model was reasonably close to the observations.The relevant statistical error associated with the linear model (standard error) was also estimated. Theoutput of this regression model will be useful in developing knowledge-based and statistical-basedavalanche forecasting model
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