Statistical-Based Forecasting of Avalanche Prediction

  • K. Srinivasan Snow & Avalanche Study Establishment, Manali
  • Girish Semwal GB Pant University, Pantnagar
  • T. Sunil Snow & Avalanche Study Establishment, Manali
Keywords: Statistical based avalanche forecasting model, Multiple linear regression model


This paper describes the study carried out to predict few meteorological parameters of the nextday using the observed parameters of previous day through statistical methods. Multiple linear regression model was formulated for a hill station, Patsio, situated between Manali and Leh, for two winter months(December and January) separately. Twelve meteorological parameters were predicted using 18 predictorsob served on the previous day. Ten years data has been used for the computation of regression coefficients. A  comparison of the forecasted parameters with the observations was made through the regressionmodel. The prediction of the developed regression model was reasonably close to the observations.The relevant statistical error associated with the linear model (standard error) was also estimated. Theoutput of this regression model will be useful in developing knowledge-based and statistical-basedavalanche forecasting model

Author Biographies

K. Srinivasan, Snow & Avalanche Study Establishment, Manali
He is Working as Scientist C at the Snow & Avalanche Stude Establishment (SASE),Manali.
Girish Semwal, GB Pant University, Pantnagar
Mr Girish Semwal obtained his M tech (Cold Region Science & Enginnering )from GB Pant University of Agricultre and Technology , Pantnagar, in 1999. His areas of research include : quantitative precipitation forecast and avalanche forecasting.
T. Sunil, Snow & Avalanche Study Establishment, Manali

Dr Sunil obtained his phD (atmospheric Science ) in 1998 from the Universityof Kerala. He joined DRDO at SASE, Manali,in1996 as Scientist B has Published several papers in national /international journals. His areas of research include : atmospheric boundary iayer syudies, snow drift studies, and numerical weather prediction.


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How to Cite
Srinivasan, K., Semwal, G., & Sunil, T. (2013). Statistical-Based Forecasting of Avalanche Prediction. Defence Science Journal, 49(5), 447-455.
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