Knowledge-Based System for Forecasting Snow Avalanches of Chowkibal-Tangdhar Axis (J&K

  • Praveen Naresh Snow & Avalanche Study Establishment, Manali
  • L.M. Pant G.B. Pant University of Agriculture & Technology , Pantnager.
Keywords: Expert system, Avalanche forecasting, Artificial intelligence, Knowledge based model


In this paper an attempt has been made to use artificial intelligence in avalanche forecasting and to develop arule-based expert system for predicting direct action avalanches of Chowkibal-Tangdhar axis (JLK). Using C-language integrated production system (CLIPS), procedural knowledge is represented in the form of rules. Thecondition attributes of the rulebased system are 28 variables selected from 1 154 samples of snow-met and snowprofile data.The relative contribution of each variable on avalanche days and non-avalanche days and their influence on sitewise release of avalanche was studied to formulate 358 rules. These rules, which include 173decision rules, were finally implemented and validated for running the model. Sixty-three samples of snow-metdata and pit profile data attributing to avalanche days and 54 samples of non-avalanche days were run on themodel. The results show that the knowledge-based model can predict avalanche days with 76 per cent efficiency.The misclassified results accounted for 28.2 percent of 117 test samples.

Author Biographies

Praveen Naresh, Snow & Avalanche Study Establishment, Manali
Mr Praveen naresh obtained his M Tech (Amospheric Sciences ) from Andhra University, Visakhapatnam, in 1993. He joined DRDO at the Snow & Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE), Manali, in 1994 as Scientist. Presently , he is working at the research & development Centre ( RDC), SASE, Chandigarh . His areas of research include : design and development of knowledge-based system and application of neural network to predict future state of discrete signals.
L.M. Pant, G.B. Pant University of Agriculture & Technology , Pantnager.
Mr L M Pant obtained his M Tech (Cold Region Science & Engineering )from G.B. Pant University of Agriculture & Technology , Pantnagar, in 1999. His areas of research include : avalanche forecasting , Knowledge- based system and Knowledge engineering.


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How to Cite
Naresh, P., & Pant, L. (2013). Knowledge-Based System for Forecasting Snow Avalanches of Chowkibal-Tangdhar Axis (J&K. Defence Science Journal, 49(5), 381-391.
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