Probabilistic Analysis of Anti-ship Missile Defence Effectiveness

Debasis Dutta

doi:10.14429/dsj.64.3532

Debasis Dutta Institute for Systems Studies and Analyses, Delhi

DOI: https://doi.org/10.14429/dsj.64.3532

Keywords: Anti-ship cruise missile, lethality, survivability, kill probability, anti-ship missile defence system, layered defence

Abstract

Effective missile defence systems are primary requirement for naval ships to counter lethal anti-ship cruise missile attacks in today’s naval warfare scenario. Anti-ship ballistic missiles would further add worry to ship missile defence. The paper discusses a probabilistic analysis of missile defence system effectiveness by considering a simple scenario of a single ship defence with multiple interceptors against a single non-maneuvering missile attack. The ship’s interceptor hard kill lethality is taken as the measures of effectiveness in the analysis. The paper discusses effect of different firing policies, multi-sensor and layered defence to achieve maximum ship survivability.

Defence Science Journal, 2014, 64(2), pp. 123-129. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.14429/dsj.64.3532

Author Biography

Debasis Dutta, Institute for Systems Studies and Analyses, Delhi

Mr Debasis Dutta obtained his MSc and MPhil in Operational Research from the University of Delhi in 1982 and 1983, respectively. Presently working as Scientist ‘G’ at Institute for Systems Studies and Analyses, Delhi. He has been working in the field of mathematical modeling and simulation. He contributed in the development of combat models as team leader in computer wargame package SANGRAM being used by the Indian Army extensively for training its Officers. His area of research includes system analysis and combat modeling and simulation. He is presently on deputation at National Security Council Secretariat, Govt. of India.