System Reliability Estimation of Divert Attitude Control System of a Launch Vehicle using Bayesian Networks

  • S. Muthukumar DRDO-Research Centre Imarat, Hyderabad - 500 069
  • R. A. Srivardhan DRDO-Defence Research and Development Laboratory, Hyderabad - 500 058
  • P. Subhash Chandra Bose Mechanical Engineering Department, National Institute of Technology, Warangal -506 004
Keywords: Propulsion system, Weighted sum algorithm, Conditional probability, MCMC, Bayesian networks, Reliability

Abstract

Divert attitude and control system (DACS) is a one-shot system and provides attitude correction and translation of the Launch vehicle. DACS consists of many flight critical sub systems which are arranged in a series configuration. The traditional Reliability block diagram and Fault tree diagram methods are unsuitable for reliability modelling, when considering uncertainty among the components and system. Bayesian network is the natural choice to model dependencies among the components and system. DACS being one shot system, it is very expensive and time consuming to test more number of systems during the design and development. Hence the data is drawn from component level, subsystem level and expert opinion is used for reliability estimation. In this paper, Bayesian network modelling of DAC system was carried out for estimating the reliability using multi-level data. An algorithm is developed for computation of Conditional probabilities in Bayesian network. Posterior probability distribution of components is calculated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations and results are compared with Junction tree based exact inference algorithm. MATLAB code is developed to estimate the reliability of DAC system.

Author Biographies

S. Muthukumar, DRDO-Research Centre Imarat, Hyderabad - 500 069

Mr S. Muthukumar, Scientist, working in Directorate of Reliability and Quality Assurance (R&QA) of RCI, DRDO, Hyderabad. He has experience in quality assurance/ reliability of structures, propulsion systems and mechanisms of flight vehicles. He received “DRDO-Young Scientist of the Year” award in 2007. He has published seven papers in conferences.

 

R. A. Srivardhan, DRDO-Defence Research and Development Laboratory, Hyderabad - 500 058

Dr R. A. Srivardhan, Scientist, DRDL, Hyderabad. Presently working in the area of development of anti-tank guided missile systems. Previous experience includes design and development of aerospace mechanisms, production of propulsion systems and missile system integration. Recipient of Agni Performance Excellence Award - 2008 and Technology Group Award -2012. He has 15 paper published in Journals/Conferences.

 

P. Subhash Chandra Bose, Mechanical Engineering Department, National Institute of Technology, Warangal -506 004

Dr Subhash Chandra Bose, currently working as an Associate Professor in Department of Mechanical Engineering, National Institute of technology, Warangal, Telangana. He has published more than 20 paper in Journals. 

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Published
2020-02-10
How to Cite
Muthukumar, S., Srivardhan, R., & Bose, P. S. (2020). System Reliability Estimation of Divert Attitude Control System of a Launch Vehicle using Bayesian Networks. Defence Science Journal, 70(1), 90-94. https://doi.org/10.14429/dsj.70.13708
Section
Missile System