Reliability Analysis of Complex Systems with Failure Propagation

Changchang Che; Huawei Wang; Xiaomei Ni

doi:10.14429/dsj.69.12145

Changchang Che School of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing
Huawei Wang School of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing
Xiaomei Ni School of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing

DOI: https://doi.org/10.14429/dsj.69.12145

Keywords: Failure propagation, Performance degradation, Deep belief network, DBN, Bayesian structural equation model, BSEM, Reliability analysis

Abstract

Failure propagation is a critical factor for the reliability and safety of complex systems. To recognise and identify failure propagation of systems, a deep fusion model based on deep belief network (DBN) and Bayesian structural equation model (BSEM) is proposed. The deep belief network is applied to extract features between status monitoring data and the performance degradation in different failure components. To calculate the path weight of failure propagation, the Bayesian structural equation model is proposed to study the relationship among different fault modes. After getting the performance degradation of each fault through DBN and calculating the path weight of fault propagation by BSEM, it is available to get the overall reliability of the system. The aircraft landing gear system with 19 fault patterns is selected to evaluate the feasibility of the proposed deep fusion model. The results demonstrate that the overall reliability of the system can be obtained by analysing the fault propagation of multiple fault patterns, and the proposed model has a lower deviation than traditional back propagation neural network.

Author Biographies

Changchang Che, School of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing

Mr Changchang Che received his Masters from Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics. Currently, his research focusses on aircraft reliability analysis and aeroengine health management. He is pursuing a PhD degree in Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics.

Huawei Wang, School of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing

Prof. Huawei Wang received her Bachelor’s in School of Management from the University of National Defense Science and Technology in 2003. Currently, she is a professor in college of civil aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, China. Her research is mainly focussed on reliability analysis of aircraft, aircraft fault diagnosis and health management.

Xiaomei Ni, School of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing

Mrs Xiaomei Ni received her Masters from Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics. Currently, she is pursuing a PhD in Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics.

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