| || Technological Forecasting Applications: Framework and Case Study on Combat Vehicles
Author : Mishra, S .N.;Deshmukh, S. G.;Vrat, Prem
Source : Defence Science Journal ; Vol:53(4) ; 2003 ; pp 371-392
Subject : 623 Military Science and Engineering;519.8 Operations Research
Keywords : Combat Vehicles;Technological Forecasting;Analytic hierarchy process;Nominal group technique;Delphi approach;Relevance tree;Morphological approach;Technology transfer
Abstract : The technological forecasting for predicting foreseeable scientific breakthroughs, refinements and discoveries has emerged as a serious professional activity in the recent years. In this era of highly competitive economy and cut-throat competitions, where technology change plays a pivotal role, the forecasting is of paramount importance to predict changes in advance and achieve the designated goals within specified time-frame so as to maintain the competitive advantage. The administration of military research and development has played a disproportionate role in the emergence of technological forecasting as a serious professional activity. This is one marketplace where an acute need for technological forecasting is felt as an adjunct to planning and execution, so as to maintain the much needed cutting edge over the adversaries by fielding superior weapon systems. In this paper, an attempt has been made to apply some of the techniques to futuristic combat vehicles. To generate greater confidence in the results, validation has been attempted through analytic hierarchy process. Based on the case study, a generalised framework is also proposed for technological forecasting and technology transfer.