| || Statistical Based Forecasting of Avalanche Prediction
Author : Sunil, T. ;Semwal, Girish;Srinivasan, K.
Source : Defence Science Journal ; Vol:49(5) ; 1999 ; pp 447-455
Subject : 551 Geology;551.578.48 Avalanche
Keywords : Statistical based avalanche forecasting model ;Multiple linear regression model
Abstract : This paper describes the study carried out to predict few meteorological parameters of the next day using the observed parameters of previous day through statistical methods. Multiple linear regression model was formulated for a hill station, Patsio, situated between Manali and Leh, for two winter months (December and January) separately. Twelve meteorological parameters were predicted using 18 predictors observed on the previous day. Ten years data has been used for the computation of regression coefficients. A comparison of the forecasted parameters with the observations was made through the regression model. The prediction of the developed regression model was reasonably close to the observations. The relevant statistical error associated with the linear model (standard error) was also estimated. The output of this regression model will be useful in developing knowledge-based and statistical-based avalanche forecasting model.